Researchers here conduct a meta-analysis of systemic reviews of dementia incidence over time. The results indicate that the risk of dementia is decreasing. The authors suggest that the reduction in the prevalence of smoking in recent decades is a major factor. That in turn tends to reinforce the consensus on the relationship between cardiovascular disease and neurodegenerative disease, that declining cardiovascular health strongly influences the risk of dementia.
Some cohort studies have reported a decline in dementia prevalence and incidence over time, although these findings have not been consistent across studies. We reviewed evidence on changes in dementia prevalence and incidence over time using published population-based cohort studies that had used consistent methods with each wave and aimed to quantify associated changes in risk factors over time using population attributable fractions (PAFs).
We identified 1,925 records in our initial search, of which five eligible systematic reviews were identified. Within these systematic reviews, we identified 71 potentially eligible primary papers, of which 27 were included in our analysis. 13 (48%) of 27 primary papers reported change in prevalence of dementia, ten (37%) reported change in incidence of dementia, and four (15%) reported change in both incidence and prevalence of dementia. Studies reporting change in dementia incidence over time in Europe (n=5) and the USA (n=5) consistently reported a declining incidence in dementia. One study from Japan reported an increase in dementia prevalence and incidence and a stable incidence was reported in one study from Nigeria.
Overall, across studies, the PAFs for less education or smoking, or both, generally declined over time, whereas PAFs for obesity, hypertension, and diabetes generally increased. The decrease in PAFs for less education and smoking was associated with a decline in the incidence of dementia in the Framingham study (Framingham, MA, USA, 1997-2013), the only study with sufficient data to allow analysis.
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